Alex in Movieland

My ridiculous attempt to predict the NBRs is here…

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The NBR is one of the maybe 4 critics groups I care about, the other 3 being New York, Los Angeles & National Society! I like NBRs especially because they have a veeeeeery long history, so it’s fun to see winners like Sunset Boulevard or Citizen Kane, because we have little award material from that era, except for Oscar and (sometimes) Golden Globes.

As with any critics award, it’s very very hard to predict them, but I’ll give it a try for the fun’s sake, justifying each prediction. [yes, I did sign up in the AwardsDaily NBR contest]. So here we go:

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Best Film
previous winners: Slumdog, No Country, Iwo Jima, Good Night and GL, Finding Neverland, Mystic River and so on. It’s a mixed bunch, either very serious and historical or emotional dramas.

My prediction: Precious

Such a cliché, right? :) but I think they’re going for it, continuing the Slumdog trend. I see it as the perfect heartbreaking drama they need, with a hopeful end. The Hurt Locker is a bit too complicated for them. I was tempted by The Lovely Bones (I’ll justify in Director) and Up in the Air (just because of Clooney). However, my runner-up is: A Serious Man – I just have a feeling the liked it a lot, and they do appreciate the Coens.

Alternative: A Serious Man.

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Best Director
previous winners: Benjamin Button, Sweeney Todd, Departed, Brokeback, Collateral, Last Samurai… Their director winners rarely make it in Oscar’s 5 and as you can see they went for flashy lately.

My prediction: Peter Jackson, for The Lovely Bones

I still have faith that The Lovely Bones will be even more influential than Avatar. It might now work well with Oscar in the main categories, but I hear technically it’s a masterpiece. The NBR likes that. And I think the movie has enough drama to really catch their interest. So I’m risking it; they might feel guilty for never rewarding him. Other options: The Hurt Locker and Precious (I can’t even put it runner-up because NBR rarely picks the same film for Film and Director). But:

Alternative: Coens for A Serious Man.

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Breakthrough – Actor
previous winners: Dev Patel, Emile Hirsch

My prediction: Jeremy Renner, for The Hurt Locker
Don’t be fooled, they don’t care how old you are or how many movies you’ve done. It’s their consolation category. My prediction is strictly instinct.

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Breakthrough – Actress
previous winners: Viola Davis, Ellen Page

My prediction: Gabourey Sibide, for Precious
I think they’ll reward her here and not in the Actress category. They did the same with Hilary Swank back in 1999. But if I’m wrong and they go with her for Best Actress, this will be the perfect seat for Carey Mulligan.

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Best Actor
previous winners: Clint Eastwood, George Clooney, Forest Whitaker, PS Hoffman, Jamie Foxx, Sean Penn… The only obvious common thing is that they’re dramatic performances. [for those who don’t know: Clooney won in 2007 because they hadn’t seen There Will Be Blood]

My prediction: Colin Firth, for A Single Man

How can I predict against Jeff Bridges? Because I don’t think he’ll win this one. My instinct told me Firth, because it’s a serious performance, dramatic… and a stylish film. It can’t be Day-Lewis or Freeman (too light). Viggo? The movie is kind of strange. So Jeff Bridges might happen, but my alternative is:

Alternative: George Clooney, for Up in the Air.
Why? Because they love him, Michael Clayton AND Good Night, and Good Luck

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Best Actress
previous winners: Hathaway, Julie Christie, Mirren, Felicity Huffman, Annette Bening, Diane Keaton… They like comedy divas, dramatic legends and heavy drama.

My prediction: Meryl Streep, for Julie & Julia AND It’s Complicated

They have no problem in awarding an actor for more than one movie. NBR is not the biggest Meryl fan, but she fits in the Nancy Meyers, light but dramatic segment that Keaton has. And Annette is also relevant for this choice. And really now: I didn’t have who to go with: Mirren is too soon and just not it, they’re not going with Abby Cornish, Marion is supporting… I really believe Gabby is getting the Breakthrough and Carey Mulligan, she might be it, or just not dramatic enough. Meryl seems right. But:

Alternative: Saoirse Ronan, for The Lovely Bones
I wasn’t crazy enough to go with her as prediction, but you know she’s better than we think.

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Best Supporting Actor
previous winners: Josh Brolin, Casey Affleck, Djimon Hounsou, Jake Gyllenhaal, Haden Church, Baldwin… As random as it gets.

My prediction: Stanley Tucci, for The Lovely Bones AND Julie & Julia

It seems to me like the obvious choice. Especially if they also go with Meryl; especially if they like The Lovely Bones and award Peter Jackson. Alec Baldwin also seems strangely right, but I guess the obvious runner-up would be:

Alternative: Christoph Waltz, for Inglourious Basterds.
I dare to say that if he win the NBR, he can say goodbye to Oscar, cause NBR is the kiss of death in this category :) just like in the Actress one, I guess.

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Best Supporting Actress
previous winners: Penelope, Amy Ryan, Catherine O’Hara, Gong Li, Laura Linney, Patricia Clarkson, Kathy Bates… and if you continue the list, you notice very few actually got Oscar noms. But here, I’m going with the obvious.

My prediction: Mo’Nique, for Precious

This will definitely happen if Precious wins Best Film. And doubt they can ignore this performance. The Nine ladies are too thin to win here, same with the Up in the Air ones. So I guess the only spoiler could be a strange unexpected indie performance. However:

Alternative: Julianne Moore, for A Single Man
It won’t happen, unless they really-really liked the movie.

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Best Original Screenplay
previous choices: Gran Torino, Juno & Lars and the Real Girl, Stranger Than Fiction, Squid and the Whale, Eternal Sunshine… They have some crazy ass choices and they like comedy.

My prediction: A Serious Man
I don’t see a runner-up. 500 days of summer could be there, I dunno…

Alternative: Inglourious Basterds
But I don’t think so.

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Best Adapted Screenplay
previous choices: Slumdog & Benjamin Button, No Country, Painted Veil, Syriana, Sideways… Very mixed, goes through all the genres.

My prediction: Precious
The Lovely Bones might also happen.

Alternative: Up in the Air

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[this is getting waaaaaay too long :P ]

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Best Animated: Up
Best Foreign Language: The White Ribbon [they like obvious choices. Except for last year’s Mongol]
Best Ensemble Cast: Nine. Obvious. Alternative: Precious.

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Hew… Wow, if I get one or two right, I’ll be lucky. The NBR are announced this Thursday!!! Are you also an NBR specialist? Do they interest you?