Sunday, April 03, 2011

My favorite thing. Oscar predictions

On July 24th, 2010 I gave a set of Oscar predictions, who I thought would win. This was 6 months before the actual nominations and more than 4 months before the critics started to give us an idea. I did well in predicting wins for both Bale and Melissa Leo even back then. A small recap of who I thought the winners would be or you can check that post HERE. I’ve added my comments in blue:

Best Picture: The Fighter [nominated]

Best Director: Terrence Malick, for The Tree of Life [moved to 2011]

Best Actor: Javier Bardem – Biutiful (the other 4 nominees: Robert Duvall, Jeff Bridges, Mark Wahlberg, Johnny Depp) [nominated / 2 out of 5]

Best Actress: Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole (Annette Bening, Hilary Swank, Natalie Portman, Lesley Manville) [nominated / 3 out of 5 + 2 of the serious runner-ups]

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale – The Fighter (Ed Harris, Brad Pitt, Sam Rockwell, Jack Nicholson) [winner!!!]

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo – The Fighter (Dianne Wiest, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Cecile De France) [winner!!! / 3 out of 5]

Best Original Screenplay: The Tree of Life [moved to 2011]

Best Adapted Screenplay: Love and Other Drugs [---]

Best Cinematography: True Grit [nominated]

Best Original Score: Inception [nominated]

Best Original Song: Toy Story 3 [winner!!!]

Best Art Direction: The Conspirator [moved to 2011]

Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech [nominated]

Best Editing: Inception [---]

Best Sound Mixing: Inception [winner!!!]

Best Sound Editing: TRON Legacy [nominated]

Best Visual Effects: Inception [winner!!!]

Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland [---]

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3 [winner!!!]

So this year I’m doing it earlier: it’s now more than 9 months before the nominations are announced and more than 10 months before we know the actual winners. And here are the future winners with alphabetical nominees right behind:

Best Picture: Hugo Cabret (The Adventures of Tintin, Carnage, Contagion, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, J. Edgar, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse, Young Adult)

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, for Hugo Cabret (Carnage, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, J. Edgar, The Tree of Life)

Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar (George Clooney for Descendants, Johnny Depp for Rum Diary, Tom Hardy for Warrior, Brad Pitt for Moneyball)

Best Actress: Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady (Jodie Foster – Carnage, Charlize Theron – Young Adult, Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn, Kate Winslet – Carnage)

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life (Jim Broadbent – The Iron Lady, Armie Hammer – J. Edgar, Nick Nolte – Warrior, Giovanni Ribisi – Rum Diary)

Best Supporting Actress: Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus (Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life, Judi Dench – My Week with Marilyn, Andrea Riseborough – W.E., Naomi Watts – J. Edgar)

Best Original Screenplay: J. Edgar (My Week with Marilyn, Take This Waltz, The Tree of Life, Young Adult)

Best Adapted Screenplay: Carnage (The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo Cabret, Moneyball)

Best Cinematography: The Tree of Life

Best Original Score: The Tree of Life

Best Original Song: Cars 2

Best Art Direction: Hugo Cabret

Best Costume Design: Hugo Cabret

Best Editing: Hugo Cabret

Best Sound Mixing: Hugo Cabret

Best Sound Editing: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Visual Effects: Transformers 3

Best Makeup: The Iron Lady

Best Animated Feature: The Adventures of Tintin


Runs Like A Gay said...

Wow, you're getting your predictions in early (and well done on your very early picks from last year).

Most of the predictions make sense but there are some very brave mentions in there.

I can see Hugo and Martin getting nominations but I doubt a win will go to either, and I really hope Meryl doesn't win for playing Thatcher as I suspect the film will be terrible.

Anonymous said...

I think at this stage Glenn Close is pretty safe to predict for a win for Albert Nobbs.I have a feeling that Iron Lady will be huge flop.

Alex in Movieland said...

@ Anonymous,

Rodrigo Garcia movies and Oscar don't usually go together, even when they're terribly deserving (Mother and Child). Plus, I have doubts it will get released in time, just like it happened with his previous one.

@ Ben,

I don't know why, but I have this feeling that Iron Lady will be quite fine and Meryl will have another Julie & Julia moment... I don't think Michelle can win as Marilyn, I'm not even sure if that role is leading.
Kate & Jodie will probably cancel eachother, and Charlize... well, Young Adult could just be a light comedy.

then there's Dragon Tattoo, and Tilda also has a movie... who knows.
Meryl seems most obvious choice to me.

Anonymous said...

I must say, I would hope that these are the nominations because the films you have in Best Picture I am pretty much really excited for across the board, Hugo Cabret, Contagion, and J. Edgar in particular.

Leo and Brad both need/deserve Oscars, Meryl needs a #3. I agree with the skepticism about Albert Nobbs, I'm just not feeling it.

And in my dreams Cotillard would be Supporting for Contagion....because I love her. Oh, and throw in Sigourney for something too. :)

dinasztie said...

I would love to see Glenn win but I agree with you. I don't think that the movie will make it.

Meryl's win is quite secured, I think. I don't really see anyone threatening her. Plus that might just be her Queen. That last loss to Sandra was a close one and they seemingly want her to win. Win is quite sure, I think. Drama+biopic+Britain+politics=Oscar

Alex in Movieland said...

I just hope The Iron Lady is not a very idealized film... I think different, controversial perspectives on Thatcher will help its quality.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

I am insatiably waiting to see Vanessa in Corialanus! Gah.