Final Oscar predictions

Not much to add. I hope I don’t change them by Sunday. My predictions for Oscar night:

Best Picture

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Could win: Gravity

My vote: Gravity

Best Director

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

Could win: Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

My vote: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

Best Actor

Will win: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Could win: Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

My vote: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress

Will win: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Could win: Amy Adams – American Hustle

My vote: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Could win: Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

My vote: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Could win: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (yeah, yeah, she’s winning. I’m still in denial)

My vote: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Her

Could win: American Hustle

My vote: Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Could win: Philomena

My vote: Before Midnight

Best Cinematography

Will win: Gravity

Could win: Prisoners

My vote: Gravity

Best Original Score

Will win: Gravity

Could win: Philomena

My vote: Gravity

Best Original Song

Will win: Frozen

Could win: Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

My vote: Frozen

Best Editing

Will win: Captain Phillips

Could win: Gravity

My vote: Gravity

Best Production Design

Will win: The Great Gatsby

Could win: Gravity

My vote: The Great Gatsby

Best Costume Design

Will win: The Great Gatsby

Could win: American Hustle

My vote: The Grandmaster (haven’t seen The Invisible Woman)

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: Gravity

Could win: Captain Phillips

My vote: Gravity

Best Sound Editing

Will win: Gravity

Could win: All Is Lost

My vote: All Is Lost

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Gravity

Could win: -

My vote: Gravity

Best Makeup & Hairstyle

Will win: Dallas Buyers Club

Could win: Bad Grandpa

My vote: The Lone Ranger

Best Animated Feature

Will win: Frozen

Could win: The Wind Rises

My vote: The Croods (haven’t seen Wind Rises)

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: The Great Beauty

Could win: The Hunt

My vote: The Great Beauty (haven’t seen Omar & The Missing Picture)

Best Documentary, Feature

Will win: 20 Feet from Stardom

Could win: The Act of Killing

My vote: -

An introduction to BEST ACTRESS 1941

There was a draw that took place (video at the end) and destiny chose Best Actress 1941 for me. At first, I wasn’t sure how to feel about it, but then, looking again at the list of 5 nominees, I started to get excited: it’s an interesting line-up of performances from rather young actresses who had already proven their talent. More so, this is a historical year for this category: the first Best Actress line-up not to include any first-time Oscar nominees (other such years were 1944, 1994 & our recent 2013).  

I enter this race having seen only 2 (The Little Foxes & Ball of Fire) of the 5 films, and I am quite curious about at least 1 of the other 3. It was also the first time (and only time?) 2 sisters competed against each other in this race: I’m talking of course about recently departed Joan Fontaine (who ended up winning for Suspicion) and Olivia de Havilland, who is still with us.

I will watch the films, then for a second time while counting the screentime. Of course I have a favourite, but I am open to any change of mind.

The 5 ladies that Oscar had chosen for 1941, in alphabetical order:

Bette Davis as Regina Giddens, in The Little Foxes

Olivia de Havilland as Emmy Brown, in Hold Back the Dawn

Joan Fontaine as Lina, in Suspicion

Greer Garson as Edna Gladney, in Blossoms in the Dust

Barbara Stanwyck as Sugarpuss O'Shea, in Ball of Fire

Greer Garson is the only one playing a real life person. With the exception of Ball of Fire, the other 4 films were all included in the 10 nominees for Best Picture of 1941.

This is before even the Golden Globes existed, so it’s hard to guess / order them by the chance of getting nominated. But I’ll give it a try. Let’s put them in context: I imagine Bette Davis had the nomination locked. At that time in history she was the reigning queen of Hollywood and The Little Foxes was one of the hottest films of 1941, with a total of 9 nominations. Bette wasn’t doing so bad herself: this was her 5th Best Actress nomination (if we don’t count the write-in for Of Human Bondage; in 7 calendar years!!) and her 4th consecutive one. By 1941, she was 33 years old and had already won the Oscar twice: for Dangerous (1935) and for Jezebel (1938). I guess you can see now why this nomination was no surprise. [Not to mention she’s excellent in it].

From here on, it’s all arguable. I would say Joan Fontaine was next, because she had won for Suspicion the only American critics’ award that recognized actresses at that time in history (the New York Film Critics Circle Award). And since she ended up winning the Oscar for it, it’s fair to say actors did enjoy her performance. Only 24 years old at the time, she entered the race with some popularity among her peers: I’m sure many felt she should’ve won the previous year for Rebecca (which made for her 1^st Oscar nomination).

Barbara Stanwyck had four films opening in 1941, with this one, Meet John Doe and The Lady Eve being all very popular. Not sure how much of a lock this nomination was, since she was giving herself a lot of competition. This was her 2^nd Oscar nomination, she had previously competed unsuccessfully with Stella Dallas (1937). Unlike Bette Davis who was already a major star, I think Stanwyck was just gradually becoming a popular actress of that era, maybe a bit more on the comedic / seductress side.

Despite her age, Greer Garson was somewhat at the beginning of her film career; this was only her third year of acting in movies, but she had started on the right foot: her first film Goodbye Mr. Chips (1939) had won her an Oscar nomination. This was her second, and would be the first in line of 5 consecutive ones. She would end up a big movie star, for playing a lot of “decent women”.

I would (almost randomly) say Olivia de Havilland was 5^th by nomination chance, just because the film doesn’t seem to be focused so much on her. Contradicting me is the fact that she was already a film star by then: from plenty of adventure films and mostly because of Gone with the Wind, for which she had received an Oscar nomination for Best Supporting Actress. This was her second Oscar nomination, and the first one in the Leading category (during her career she would end up winning 2 Best Actress Oscars).

Also difficult to figure out is who the runner-ups were. I managed to put together a list of names.

Possible runner-ups:

Barbara Stanwyck, The Lady Eve (in case she didn’t make it for Ball of Fire)

Irene Dunne, Penny Serenade

Jean Arthur, The Devil and Miss Jones

Joan Crawford, A Woman's Face

Carole Lombard, Mr. & Mrs. Smith

Dark horses?

Barbara Stanwyck, Meet John Doe

Vivien Leigh, That Hamilton Woman

Merle Oberon, That Uncertain Feeling

Bette Davis, The Great Lie

Mary Astor, The Maltese Falcon

Marlene Dietrich, The Flame of New Orleans

Greta Garbo, Two-Faced Woman

Other eligible leading performances of 1941:

Wendy Hiller, Major Barbara

Ginger Rogers, Tom Dick and Harry

Maureen O'Hara, How Green Was My Valley

Joan Crawford, When Ladies Meet

Barbara Stanwyck, You Belong to Me

Olivia de Havilland, The Strawberry Blonde

Margaret Lockwood, Night Train to Munich

Gene Tierney, Sundown

Ida Lupino, Ladies in Retirement

Margaret Sullavan, Appointment for Love

Margaret Sullavan, So Ends Our Night

Claudette Colbert, Skylark

Ann Sothern, Lady Be Good

Priscilla Lane, Blues in the Night

Merle Oberon, Lydia

Martha Scott, One Foot in Heaven

Martha Scott, Cheers for Miss Bishop

Evelyn Keyes, Here Comes Mr. Jordan

Bette Davis, The Bride Came C.O.D.

The ranking will be posted... this spring. J

...ah, yes, and here’s the proof I didn’t cheat. Pointless video.

My vote - Best Actress 2013

I can’t believe it, I got to put together a Best Actress year before the actual ceremony – that hasn’t happened since forever. And what an Oscar year it is, with these top 3 performances some of the best this

category’s ever seen. And so different… SO different that it was almost impossible choosing a winner. I must compare it, in my mind, to Meryl vs. Viola: the technical precision VS the heart. Back then I chose the technical perfection, and guess what, it’s only fair I go for the same now.

#1, #2, #3 are, as I said, amazing achievements and career best for Cate & Sandra. #4 was easy to choose – a performance that I respect more than I love, from an actress I normally fall for. #5 is not bad, but probably shouldn’t be on this list (give me Julia, Julie, Adele or Emma instead).

I am officially cancelling the “best acted scene” category, and one more comment: boy, was counting Sandra’s screentime in Gravity a pain in the ass. :) Must focus on “approximately”, since the heavy breathing was very hard to keep track of.

Here is how I decided to rank them:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

The screentime: approximately 65 minutes and 7 seconds (69.5% of the film)

The film: I would call it one of Woody’s mediocre-to-good films. It’s definitely saved by the acting, not just Cate, but Sally and Bobby also. The directing is ok, but the dialogue didn’t always work: I might’ve liked it more had it been more honest in being a Streetcar rip-off.

The role: Cate plays Jasmine, an emotionally unbalanced, troubled socialite, who moves with her sister, trying to recover from her husband’s death and losing all of her fortune.

The performance: Meet Cate Blanchett. The best actress of her generation. Most of you reading know I had doubt preparing for this film: will she overact, how will I feel? Well, it’s an acting class like no other, a real tour-the-force that feels even better the second time around. Nothing is held back: she doesn’t shy away from craziness, but always packs it with a human emotion. In every scene you can feel how hungry Cate is to deliver excellence – and it all works: Jasmine is never a caricature, not in Cate’s hands. The most touching thing is recognizing yourself in some of the emotions, and there are so many layers to the performance. Jasmine crying after Dwight finally calls? Haven’t we all been there, in that tense moment?!

The highlight: Any one of at least 15 impeccably acted scenes. I’d probably go for the ending or the selling shoes on Madison Avenue monologue.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity

The screentime: approximately 61 minutes and 54 seconds (74% of the film)

The film: Probably the best film of the year. A film about space that is not science fiction? What a concept! Yet, it doesn’t waste a minute. Not one boring moment, because Alfonso Cuaron is in charge – a story of survival that feels technically flawless. A cinema experience to remembered.

The role: Sandra plays Dr. Ryan Stone, a medical engineer who tries to survive and get back to Earth, after an incident leaves her adrift in space.

The performance: By no accident, this almost ended up being my #1 choice, because I was thinking with my heart. There’s one scene in this film (yes, the crying scene) that makes the performance what it is. Of course, Sandra is excellent throughout by giving a performance that feels so natural, so honest, despite its very physical demands; the difficulty level of this role is higher than people tend to realize. I found her incredibly charismatic in a very unfussy kind of way – the scene where she finally loses hope is so surprisingly emotional and intimate, one of the most touching I’ve ever seen.

The highlight: Like I’d need to say: I’m dying, Aningaaq, and there she goes breaking our hearts.

3. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

The screentime: approximately 51 minutes and 19 seconds (45% of the film)

The film: I’ve heard a lot of complaining about it, but it’s a fine film that depends a lot on its actors. The screenplay mostly works, what the film needed was a director with a bit more vision and a bit more personality (though not too much).

The role: Meryl plays Violet Weston, a woman with cancer, addicted to pills, whose family goes through (another) crisis when her husband kills himself.

The performance: It’s not a subtle performance, that’s pretty clear. But then: it’s not a subtle role either, so I wouldn’t blame Meryl. It takes someone who really knows acting to carry a role so emotionally intense, and Meryl succeeds, with the laughs, with the heartbreaking moments, with the ones that are over-the-top. There’s a lack of vanity that gained my respect, and there’s a sense that she knows this woman, that she understands where she’s coming from and is not afraid to lose herself in the character. The dinner table scene is dynamite and Meryl deserves most of the credit for it.

The highlight: Anything at the dinner table (Tell her what an attack looks like – heartbreaking) or the boots monologue.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena

The screentime: approximately 48 minutes and 25 seconds (52.7% of the film)

The film: It’s an amazing true story that, in my humble opinion, should have been adapted in a very different way: it needed less laughs, witty lines and commercial bullshit and a deeper journey into the mind of Judi’s character. I do appreciate it showing both views on religion.

The role: Judi plays Philomena Lee, a woman in search of her long-lost son, who was taken from her 50 years prior, when sold into adoption.

The performance: I’ve had a big dilemma with this performance, since I can tell it’s good, it really is, but I simply don’t love it. It might be because it doesn’t deliver the emotional punch it could have, but, given the screenplay, this might just be as good as it gets. This is Judi Dench, and even ok Judi Dench is quite amazing to begin with, but I felt the humour of the screenplay damaged the performance by breaking the rhythm, if that makes any sense. Sure, Judi can handle even the funny lines, but the end result left me rather cold, as if I didn’t really care. The great acting does come from the more silent moments when we get a glimpse of her soul, through Judi’s very expressive eyes.

The highlight: Looking at the montage with Anthony’s life, I did not abandon my son.

5. Amy Adams, American Hustle

The screentime: approximately 48 minutes and 4 seconds (36.8% of the film)

The film: It tries too much to be Goodfellas at times, when it should just be a David O. Russell film. The screenplay is the problem, and it’s never too deep as to feel important in any way. Leaves little impression afterwards.

The role: Amy plays Sydney Prosser, a con artist forced to work with the FBI after she and her con man lover get caught.

The performance: For some reason, I’ve had some issues seeing Amy in this part. I’ve liked her a lot in the past (Junebug, Doubt) but I just couldn’t buy her as a seductive woman from the fashion world who ends up a great con artist. My feeling was that for some of this performance Amy simply looks embarrassed to be there, as she’s just about to run from the set. Yes, yes, I know the character is vulnerable, with self-trust issues, but something just didn’t seem convincing enough (not talking about the accent). That said, I guess she’s ok: she gets two rather dramatic scenes with the guys and does a good job with them, she looks hot in the clothes, but I just didn’t care a lot for her character. We’re looking at almost 3 stars; I try to stay as objective, otherwise I might’ve went for less.

The highlight: ‘This is what we do to survive’.

How will the Academy vote? Well… Cate should be the clear, obvious winner and I so HOPE it will happen. Her only competition comes from Amy, who has the advantage of never winning before (her 5^th nomination) and a good campaign late in the game. I guess Sandra is 3^rd, with little chance of pulling a surprise win (also because people still rightfully feel she didn’t deserve her first). Judi will get some votes from older Academy members, and I think Meryl is 5^th just because the film wasn’t much of a success and she won her 3^rd Oscar just 2 years ago; so no pressure.

And that’s about it.

What’s next: A DRAW (!!!) which I haven’t done in a looong while. :) If you’re new to it, I’ll just put some pieces of paper in a bag (with eligible Best Actress years) and pick one without cheating. And film it all, of course. I feel like going really vintage, so 30s-40s it is. The years entering the draw will be 1933, 1934, 1935, 1938, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1946 and 1948. A reminder that 1928, 1931, 1937, 1945 & 1947 have already been discussed (you can click on them). 30, 32, 36 & 49 are not available to me, so they’re not entering. :) Fun. I have my favourites, though I never cheat.

To see other BEST ACTRESS years discussed so far, go to the column on the right (which needs a bit of updating).

An introduction to BEST ACTRESS 2013

I do believe years from now people will look back at this Best Actress year as one of the best in the category’s history. It’s not completely perfect and not the best, but the top 3 performances really are extraordinary.

I will get to ranking them in a few weeks, after I see the films (again) and count their screentime. This is just the introductory post and a look at how we ended up with these specific nominees. As of now, the only film of the 5 I have yet to see is Philomena, which I hope will be made available to me before March 2nd.

Interesting to mention this is only the 4th time in Oscar history that there are no first-time nominees in the Best Actress category (the other Best Actress years being 1941, 1944 and 1994 – previously discussed on the blog).

The 5 ladies that Oscar has chosen for 2013, in alphabetical order:

 Amy Adams as Sydney Prosser, in American Hustle

Cate Blanchett as Jasmine, in Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock as Dr. Ryan Stone, in Gravity

Judi Dench as Philomena, in Philomena

Meryl Streep as Violet Weston, in August: Osage County

Let’s look at each nominee and how they made it to the list of 5. Entering this race as a favourite is Cate Blanchett, who I think was a lock and had the first chance of getting nominated. This is Cate’s 6th Oscar nomination, and the 3rd in the leading category. She has previously won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for The Aviator (2004). Oscar nomination aside, she’s received some major awards for playing Jasmine: the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Drama, the SAG Award, and awards from major critics’ groups like the New York Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Plus, nominations from BAFTA and Independent Spirit Awards (as of now, both pending). She is the clear favourite for another Oscar win, having dominated the season.

I think the actress with the second chance of getting nominated was Sandra Bullock. And it’s easy to see why, considering her film Gravity is a serious Oscar contender and one of the most profitable films of 2013. This is Sandra’s 2nd Oscar nomination, following her (infamous) Oscar win for Best Actress for The Blind Side (2009). Sandra enters the race having received nominations from all the major voting groups: nominations for Best Actress – Drama at the Golden Globes, for the SAG Awards and BAFTA. She also has a couple of wins from critics’ awards, but only small groups (like Kansas). The fact that she’s very popular among actors and a great campaigner also helped secure the nomination.

I think from here down, any of these actresses could’ve (more or less surprisingly) miss on a nomination. I would say Judi Dench was next, by chance of getting nominated. Her film, Philomena, also surprised with a Best Picture nomination and she did benefit from the British support, the British side of voters from the Academy. Interesting to note she is also the only one of the 5 nominees playing a real-life person (not a famous one, though). This is Judi’s 7th Oscar nomination and the 5th in the Best Actress category. She has previously won an Oscar for her Supporting performance in Shakespeare in Love (1998). For this performance Judi has also received nominations for Best Actress – Drama at the Golden Globes, from the SAG Awards and from BAFTA (which she might just end up winning).

Meryl Streep received her 18th acting nomination this year, more than any other actor in Oscar’s history, male or female. 15 of these nominations are for Best Actress (a record in this category). She has previously won 3 Oscars, for Best Supporting Actress for Kramer vs. Kramer (1979) and for Best Actress for Sophie’s Choice (1982) and The Iron Lady (2011). Despite her giving another amazing performance, this nomination was not a sure-thing, mostly due to the film receiving mixed reviews. Meryl enters this specific race with nominations from the SAG Awards and from the Golden Globes (for Best Actress – Comedy or Musical).

The almost-surprise nominee from the last segment of the awards season is Amy Adams, who, although she might’ve been 4th or 5th in line to get nominated, is the dark horse for the win and the only serious threat to Cate getting the trophy. She got nominated mostly due to the success of American Hustle, both with critics and the audiences, and the perfect timing of her late campaign. This is Amy’s 5th Oscar nomination, and the 1st one in this category, the other 4 being for Supporting Actress. She’s also the only one in this group to have never won an Oscar. Amy enters the race with a Golden Globe win for Best Actress – Comedy or Musical and a BAFTA nomination. The lack of a SAG nomination discouraged people from predicting her.

And now about the competition the 5 actresses had encountered. These were the other names thrown in the game.

One obvious runner-up / #6:

Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks (she had received SAG, Golden Globes and BAFTA nominations, a National Board of Review win, but the Oscars didn’t care).

Quite possible / Dark horses:

Adèle Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color

Julie Delpy – Before Midnight

Brie Larson – Short Term 12

Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha

Very long shots:

Kate Winslet – Labor Day

Julia Louis-Dreyfuss – Enough Said

Berenice Bejo – The Past

Felicity Jones – The Invisible Woman

Carey Mulligan – The Great Gatsby

Sophie Nelisse – The Book Thief

Paulina Garcia – Gloria

I guess my ranking will be posted in a few weeks.

Enjoy the season! J

Final Oscar predictions

A fun Oscar year is one with potential for surprises. As of now, I can’t tell you who/what will win Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor & Best Supporting Actress. And that feels great! :))

Here are my predicted nominees (in order of their chance of getting nominated):

BEST PICTURE

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Gravity

3. American Hustle

4. Captain Phillips

5. Nebraska

6. Her

7. The Wolf of Wall Street

8. Dallas Buyers Club

9. Saving Mr. Banks

Runner-ups: 10. Inside Llewyn Davis  11. Philomena  12. Blue Jasmine

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

2. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

3. David O. Russell – American Hustle

4. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips

5. Spike Jonze – Her

Runner-ups: 6. Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street,  7. Alexander Payne – Nebraska

BEST ACTOR

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

2. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

3. Bruce Dern – Nebraska

4. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips

5. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-ups: 6. Robert Redford – All Is Lost  7. Christian Bale – American Hustle

BEST ACTRESS

1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

2. Sandra Bullock – Gravity

3. Judi Dench – Philomena

4. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks

5. Amy Adams – American Hustle

Runner-ups: 6. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County  7. Adèle Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

3. Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips

4. Daniel Bruhl – Rush

5. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle

Runner-ups: 6. Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street  7. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

2. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

3. June Squibb – Nebraska

4. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County

5. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Runner-ups: 6. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine  7. Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. American Hustle

2. Her

3. Nebraska

4. Blue Jasmine

5. Inside Llewyn Davis

Runner-up: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Before Midnight

3. The Wolf of Wall Street

4. Philomena

5. Captain Phillips

Runner-up: August: Osage County

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Inside Llewyn Davis

4. Captain Phillips

5. Prisoners

Runner-up: The Grandmaster

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. 12 Years a Slave

2. Gravity

3. The Book Thief

4. Saving Mr. Banks

5. All Is Lost

Runner-up: Captain Phillips.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Frozen

2. The Great Gatsby

3. Her

4. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

5. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Runner-up: One Chance.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Great Gatsby

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

4. Gravity

5. Oz The Great and Powerful

Runner-up: Saving Mr. Banks

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Great Gatsby

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. American Hustle

4. Oz The Great and Powerful

5. The Invisible Woman

Runner-up: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

BEST EDITING

1. Gravity

2. 12 Years a Slave

3. Captain Phillips

4. Rush

5. American Hustle

Runner-up: The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Gravity

2. Captain Phillips

3. Rush

4. 12 Years a Slave

5. Lone Survivor

Runner-up: All Is Lost

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Gravity

2. Rush

3. All Is Lost

4. Lone Survivor

5. Captain Phillips

Runner-up: Pacific Rim.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Gravity

2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

3. Pacific Rim

4. Iron Man 3

5. World War Z

Runner-up: Star Trek: Into Darkness

BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLE

1. American Hustle

2. Dallas Buyers Club

3. The Lone Ranger

Runner-up: Bad Grandpa

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Frozen

2. The Croods

3. The Wind Rises

4. Monsters University

5. Ernest and Celestine

Runner-up: Despicable Me 2

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. The Hunt

2. The Broken Circle Breakdown

3. Two Lives

4. Omar

5. The Great Beauty

Runner-up: The Grandmaster

No predictions for Documentary & short categories.

We’ll see how it goes. J Definitely not sure about most of them. 12 Years a Slave should lead the nominations - I have it now with 12.

For previous predictions on this OSCARS edition, just click on the date:

October 5th

April 3rd     - that was early, I know ;)

Golden Globe predictions

Time to put “on paper” the predictions for tonight:

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Will win: 12 Years a Slave

Could win: Gravity

Should win: Gravity (haven’t seen Philomena)

Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Will win: American Hustle

Could win: The Wolf of Wall Street

Should win: Nebraska (have yet to see Her)

Best Actor – Drama

Will win: Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave

Could win: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club

Should win: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club (haven’t seen Elba, but I doubt I’m a fan)

Best Actor – Comedy/Musical

Will win: Bruce Dern – Nebraska

Could win: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street

Should win: Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis (have yet to see Joaquin)

Best Actress – Drama

Will win: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine

Could win: Sandra Bullock – Gravity

Should win: I’m not saying ;)

Best Actress – Comedy/Musical

Will win: Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Could win: Amy Adams – American Hustle

Should win: Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club

Could win: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave

Should win: Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (kills me to choose between these 2 excellent performances)

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

Could win: Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle

Should win: Julia Roberts – August: Osage County (CLEARLY a leading performance)

Best Director

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

Could win: Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave

Should win: Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity

Best Screenplay

Will win: American Hustle

Could win: Her

Should win: Nebraska (haven’t see Her & Philomena)

Best Original Score

Will win: Gravity

Could win: 12 Years a Slave

Should win: All Is Lost

Best Original Song

Will win: Inside Llewyn Davis

Could win: Frozen

Should win: Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Foreign-Language Film

Will win: Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Animated Feature

Will win: Frozen

And I’m not going into the TV categories. ;) I do that over at goldderby.com

My vote - Best Actress 1972

It’s only now that I finish what I had announced more than a year and a half ago: putting together the ranking for Best Actress 1972 – a year that was not selected by me, but was decided through a draw. The introduction for this particular year (and how the 5 lucky actresses got nominated) can be read by clicking here.

I came into this having seen only 2 of the 5 films: the other 3 ranged from bad to good, but the overall group of nominees here was quite underwhelming. This was not a great year for Best Actress, I must say; maybe one of the weakest I’ve ever reviewed. #1 was an easy choice since it’s the only performance that’s quite excellent. #2 was also clear to me, while the other 3 share the same no. of stars, but feel far from equal or even similar – each has a different set of problems.

Best acted scene will not be awarded for this year – there was no moment to really blow me away in any of the 5 performances, so I’d rather hold back from randomly picking a winner for this special mentioning.

Here is how I decided to rank them:

1. Liza Minnelli, Cabaret

The screentime: approximately 62 minutes and 22 seconds (53.2% of the film)

The film: I am not one of those people who think Cabaret is a divine gift for us mortals (like many bloggers seems to believe). It’s a well-written, very well-directed musical, that is memorable, but I simply cannot love in that passionate way. But good.

The role: Liza plays Sally Bowles, an American performer in 1930s Berlin, a young woman full of life, who gets caught in a love triangle with two very different men.

The performance: It’s quite clear that this film would not function without Liza playing the role – it all relies so much on her charm, her energy and her ability of bringing the humour to a film that could easily go the serious side. Her singing numbers are quite flawless and there’s nothing to comment there, as she puts her heart and soul into every song. The acting for the rest of it is good, often in that screwball comedy kind of way: I applaud it, I admire it, I acknowledge the success of the performance – but I don’t love it enough for 5 stars.

The highlight: I could go for the father scene, though it’s probably the performance of Cabaret.

2. Liv Ullmann, The Emigrants

The screentime: approximately 46 minutes and 38 seconds (25.8% of the film)

The film: It’s the one I’ve seen most recently, so it’s very fresh in my mind. If you go for slow-paced European films with little fun, then it’s a good one. I admire the screenplay, the ensemble performances, but it could’ve definitely used more editing (true: I might’ve seen the director’s cut).

The role: Liv plays Kristina, a 19^th century deeply religious, simple-minded young woman who marries a Swedish farmer, builds a home and follows her husband when he decides to move the family to the New Land.

The performance: I guess it’s just that I expected more: more screentime, scenes that were bigger and louder, something more than the quiet dedicated wife performance. Of course, there are a couple of scenes where she gets to show off, but that’s also when the character is less likeable. For the most part, it’s a quiet supportive performance, that I find little fault to, but I wish I would’ve seen more from her. It’s a clear case where the actress does almost exactly what the role demanded, but those limitations on paper influence my perspective on the performance.

The highlight: Maybe the scene where she can’t find her daughter or the ”flees scene” on the boat, combining the funny with the tragic.

3. Cicely Tyson, Sounder

The screentime: approximately 30 minutes and 29 seconds (29.5% of the film)

The film: A boring film, unworthy of being one of the year’s Best Picture nominees. There’s nothing frustrating about it, but I don’t remember one single element to really grab my interest. Dull.

The role: Cicely plays Rebecca Morgan, a wife and mother during the Depression-era, who has to take care of the family by herself when her husband is sent to jail for stealing.

The performance: I cannot explain how this performance won a whole bunch of critics’ awards and so many people seem to love it. It’s so low-key, subtle to the point it’s underplayed, that it’s almost invisible. I was counting on her to save the film – what we got was the quiet presence of a woman whose instinctive intelligence I could feel, but was too shy to properly own the screen. Her eyes do tell a story and you can tell her talent is way above her fellow actors’, but why give us so little to judge, Miss Cicely? I was disappointed, as it felt like a waste of potential.

The highlight: Rrrrr... oh... I don’t know. Trying to see her husband in prison?

4. Maggie Smith, Travels with My Aunt

The screentime: approximately 70 minutes and 39 seconds (69.3% of the film)

The film: This is a film many love to hate. And, while it really is a mess at times, it’s quite easy to watch, almost enjoyable. The fact that it doesn’t take itself seriously works in its favour.

The role: Maggie plays Augusta Bertram, an old eccentric woman who travels around Europe with her nephew trying to find money to rescue a former lover from her past.

The performance: There are plenty who dislike the performance just as much as they dislike the film, but again: I’m not a hater. Maggie has the difficult task of playing a woman both in her 20s and in her 60s-70s and I think she does it rather convincingly. Does anyone doubt she’s the main if not the sole reason the film kind of works? Of course, it’s not much of a role, and considering she’s playing it for laughs, there isn’t much of a stretch; and, truth be told: it happens that she overacts on occasion. Maggie does justice to the silly comedy and nails a more dramatic scene towards the end, but it’s probably not impressive enough to justify an Oscar nomination.

The highlight: Easily, the scene towards the end where she clearly speaks her mind in front of the nephew.

5. Diana Ross, Lady Sings the Blues

The screentime: approximately 119 minutes and 48 seconds (83.7% of the film)

The film: A big failure that combines poor writing with clichéd directing and an uncomfortable leading performance. It’s very boring, so I wouldn’t recommend it.

The role: Diana plays Billie Holiday, the famous jazz singer who battles a drug addiction while trying to find her place in the music world.

The performance: I almost gave it a “1 star”, but I’ve only done that once in the past, to a complete disaster. This was not a disaster, but a very strange performance from an actress who clearly didn’t have the experience to carry the role. Actually, she had NO experience, and you could tell. The general feeling was that she was trying too hard, especially in the very dramatic scenes: Diana takes “under the influence” a bit too far, to the point it simply becomes something unconvincing and over-weepy. She brings little personality to a role that really needed energy and charisma. It’s the longest screentime I’ve ever counted (so far I’ve discussed over 25% of Oscar’s Best Actress nominees) but it works against her, as she doesn’t have the power to carry every single scene of the film.

The highlight: Any moment where she gets to sing, I guess.

How did the Academy vote: this must have been an easy win for Liza, I can’t imagine differently. She was competing with too many “minorities”: a foreign actress in a foreign-language film, plus 2 black actresses at a time in Oscar’s history when I bet there were only a handful of African-American members inside the Academy. So Liza won: deservingly. It’s Liv who probably was a distant 2^nd, while Cicely must’ve came 3^rd (wouldn’t have guessed it myself, but she did win all those critics’ awards). Diana Ross must’ve been 4^th, while Maggie Smith didn’t stand a chance of winning.

And that’s about it.

What’s next: Preparing for Best Actress 2013 ;) The nominations will be announced in 3 weeks or so, but we can anticipate/predict the 5. Like in no other year, I honestly hope there’ll be no surprises: I rather they go with the solid 5 since I doubt any of the runner-ups would fit my taste.

To see other BEST ACTRESS years discussed so far, go to the column on the right, where it says Best Actress Years. ;)