Friday, November 05, 2010

Oscar predictions - Episode 2: Guessing the winners 4 months in advance...

November 6th

On July 24th, I posted my predictions for the winners, but also the nominees in the main categories. Of course, some things have changed, release dates have been canceled, movies have flopped, etc. Here are my new predictions (ps: I update them very often, just don't get to post them here):

Best Picture: The Way Back (the other 9 nominees: 127 Hours, Another Year, The Fighter, For Colored Girls, Inception, The King's Speech, The Social Network, True Grit, Toy Story 3)

Best Director: Peter Weir, The Way Back (the other 4 nominees: Danny Boyle, Tom Hooper, David Fincher, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)

Best Actor: Colin Firth - The King's Speech (the other 4 nominees: Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, James Franco, Mark Wahlberg)

Best Actress: Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right (Sally Hawkins, Nicole Kidman, Natalie Portman, Hilary Swank)

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale – The Fighter (Andrew Garfield, Ed Harris, Sam Rockwell, Geoffrey Rush)

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo – The Fighter (Helena Bonham Carter, Kimberly Elise, Lesley Manville, Dianne Wiest)

Best Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: The Way Back
Best Original Score: Inception
Best Original Song: Waiting for Superman
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Editing: 127 Hours
Best Sound Mixing: 127 Hours
Best Sound Editing: TRON Legacy
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Waiting for Superman
Best Foreign Language Film: Life Above All (South Africa)


joe burns said...

Interesting predictions, but I just don't think that Benning will win, or even be nominated.

Alex in Movieland said...

well, I actually think I'm seeing the film tomorrow.
but from what I hear, the is THE one lock for a nomination we have in this shifty Best Actress field.

I think anyone could get nominated, but so few could manage a win right now.

Lesley Manville is either going supporting or is too British and unknown to win BA. Nicole's film is very indie. Natalie's role is too edgy. Sally's film is too light. Hilary already has 2. Julianne's not gonna happen. Jennifer Lawrence is too young and pretty. Michelle Williams has the most indie film ever. :)

which leaves Bening. with Nicole maybe as a spoiler. but it's so hard to pick a winner. Meryl would've had an easy win this time.

Malcolm said...

Your picks are interesting!

The Way Back has a chance for a nomination, but not BP win, I guess. The Social Network will win if it could maintain its steam through the awards season.

Colin Firth and James Franco are the only locks in the BAr category. Colin may win if they recognize that he was robbed in A Single Man. Or Franco if they think they have snubbed him for the longest time.

I believe Bening is the only lock. There a lot of possibilities. Manville was placed as supporting in BIFA, so it's a 50-50 for her here, Portman's movie is polarizing, Kidman has an indie film, Moore is has the lesser chance if they're thinking of two leads, Hathaway has lost it a bit, Hawkins is in a light movie, Lane doesn't have big box-office for Secretariat to work, Swank doesn't have much steam but she has, and Lawrence is in an indie film too. And YOUNG.

Bale is possible if his film would do well. Rush and Harris may really happen. TImberlake and Garfield may split votes for The Social Network slot, but I'm sure one of them will get in.

The BSAs is the most open category. I think only Helena has the surest chance of getting the nom. Leo, Adams, and Wiest are still shaky, I guess. Manville... where would they place her?

Anyway, have you seen The Social Network already?

Alex in Movieland said...

No, I haven't seen The Social Network yet, but I doubt it will be a SERIOUS contender for the win, considering it's focused to such a young audience.

the one runner-up I see to The Way Back, the serious one, is The King's Speech. While I find it hard to imagine something so stuffy winning, Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson seem sure about it.

I AM really feeling Weir in the director category, so if that might happen, why not also BP.

From what I've seen in the The Fighter trailer, MELISSA LEO is there!!! the white trash mother? come on, and I'm sure it's gonna be a good performance.

Kimberly Elise is just a wild guess, based on the few reviews that single her out.

dinasztie said...

I hope Bening wins. She's just brilliant, giving her very best performance. I was extremely moved by her. Anyway, I don't think that anyone can beat Manville if she goes supporting. And For Colored Girls won't be nominated for BP I think (imdb 3.7).

Alex in Movieland said...

yes, I saw Kids Are All Right over the weekend and although I don't think Annette will be my favorite, she's definitely in the game and shows enough range to justify a win. Some scenes were just great, even though, in a way, she is a bit typecast :P like the tough alpha woman. we've seen that before.

anyway, best performance of the film, as I wasn't that crazy about Julianne's character, therefor her performance didn't impress me.

To my defense, this prediction for For Colored Girls was done before it opened. It was between this and Black Swan I think. or another year. my #9 and #10 slots for BP are continuously changing, but I'm not buying Kids Are All Right for a nomination there, even if the film was ok. WHO will put it at #1??

and the 3.7 for Colored Girls... I wouldn't believe so much in it: I'm sure more than 50% = hate votes casted by people who haven't even seen it.

Elgart said...

No doubt Inception will win the Best Visual Effects.

RC said...

your predictions of nominees all seem "normal" but your winners enter that part of the race that I don't think my mind has gone.

I don't see the Way Back performing like you've laid out, but maybe that's because all people talk about is Social Network vs. The King's Speech.

So for presenting something different, I say "Thank you!"

Alex in Movieland said...

well, in all honesty, I HAVE changed them since posting here :)

I am jumping into King's Speech bandwagon until proven contrary.

Actually, as I was writing on another blog, after seeing The Social Network, I can say it has imo almost no chance at Best Picture. I think King's Speech, Way Back, True Grit AND The Fighter all have better shots. I like the film, but it won't appeal to voters over 50.