Tuesday, May 01, 2012

And the Oscar goes to...

On April 3rd, 2011 I had predicted the following: Best Picture for Hugo Cabret (as it was called at that time) and Best Director for Martin Scorsese - and less than 10 months later Hugo was the runner-up for Best Picture and Best Director wins. Also, I had predicted a Best Actress win for Meryl Streep (and I was right), also wins for Hugo in Art Direction & Sound Mixing (happened), The Iron Lady for Makeup (happened); plus, such exotic nominations that came through as Moneyball for Best Picture & Best Actor and Nick Nolte for Best Supporting Actor (for Warrior). Overall, I did good. (proof: April 3rd, 2011 predictions)

Let's see how I'll handle it now. Oscar predictions are here (8 1/2 months before nominations are announced & almost 10 months before the actual ceremony). Winners is bold, the nominees in alphabetical order. The nominees will be:

BEST PICTURE (8 films): Les Misérables (The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit, Killing Them Softly,  Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Master, Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master (Tom Hooper - Les Miserables, Ang Lee - Life of Pi, Steven Spielberg - Lincoln, Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master (Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln, Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables, Bill Murray - Hyde Park on Hudson, Brad Pitt - Killing Them Softly)

BEST ACTRESS: Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy (Sandra Bullock - Gravity, Keira Knightley - Anna Karenina, Laura Linney - Hyde Park on Hudson, Carey Mulligan - The Great Gatsby)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix - The Master (Russell Crowe - Les Miserables, Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, Ray Liotta - Killing Them Softly, Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables (Amy Adams - The Master, Samantha Barks - Les Miserables, Laura Dern - The Master, Sally Field - Lincoln)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Master (Django Unchained, Hyde Park on Hudson, Imogene, Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Killing Them Softly (Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, The Paperboy)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Hobbit (The Dark Knight Rises, Gravity, Les Miserables, Life of Pi)

BEST EDITING: Les Misérables (The Hobbit, The Master, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Lincoln (Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Life of Pi, The Master)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: Sparkle (Brave, The Hobbit)

BEST ART DIRECTION: Les Misérables (Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit, Prometheus)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Anna Karenina (The Great Gatsby, The Hobbit, Les Miserables, Snow White and the Huntsman)

BEST SOUND MIXING: Les Misérables (The Dark Knight Rises, The Hobbit, Prometheus, Zero Dark Thirty)

BEST SOUND EDITING: The Hobbit (Battleship, The Dark Knight Rises, The Hunger Games, Prometheus)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: The Hobbit (The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Life of Pi, Prometheus)

BEST MAKEUP: The Dark Knight Rises (The Hobbit, Les Miserables)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Brave (Frankenweenie, The Pirates!, The Secret World of Arrietty, Tales of the Night)

These could happen, right?? :)


dinasztie said...

You're very confident. :P

I don't like doing official predictions. Still, I'm so sure that Viola will actually win next year. So much sentiment on her side. I don't think the co-lead thing will be a problem, it wasn't this year, anyway. :)

I don't know but for some reason I also feel Laura Dern winning (Wishful Thinking) á lá Melissa Leo for The Fighter (with people predicting Adams and stuff at first and then the "secondary" supporting lady winning).

I had a vision of Daniel Day-Lewis, Viola, Laura and Leo backstage, holding Oscars. :)

Cole said...

I don't know but I think Nicole Kidman is more a supporting player, Thierry fremaux, the organizer of the Cannes Film festival said that in The Paperboy, Nicole will really surprise us. fingers crossed!

and don't underestimate Marion Cotillard for The rust and bone or lowlife. Two very baity roles.

Alex in Movieland said...

I'm not sure about Daniel Day-Lewis, the role of Lincoln looks a bit predictable, not special enough. :) it depends on the screenplay.
Anne Hathaway is my safest bet in the acting categories. :) this win will happen.

I agree Nicole might be supporting, but if she's so fine, she might get a push as a lead. I have the same dilemma with Carey Mulligan (she's supporting in the book, but they might write her more as a lead - I'm sure that'll happen).

Anonymous said...

The Surrogate is sure Oscar contender. Helen Hunt and John Hawkes are sure nominees, possibly winners. Read the reviews on rotten tomatoes. And Kidman is supporting in Paperboy.

Alex in Movieland said...

don't you just know everything. you're so mean spirited. get jollier or please stop posting.

Kidman's role IS supporting in the book, but it's not clear how big they made it for the film. So Leading is still a possibility.
on The Surrogate, not everything that comes out of Sundance becomes a contender. I know about it, but I don't predict it.

Anonymous said...

I saw the film, and i know it will be Oscar contender and big one. Fox searchlight already bought the rights so it will be distributed. And i'm not mean spirited at all, I just don't often agree with you regarding some performances.

Calum Reed said...

Musicals have had a tough time getting nominated (never mind winning) in the last fifty years, and "Les Miserables" is going to get negative reviews for how overstuffed and cheesy the plot is.

It feels as if Nicole Kidman should have more nominations than three, but I don't trust Lee Daniels at all. I'd definitely put Hawkes into Leading Actor because he's been nominated recently, so although the film is small he has a guaranteed fanbase and a baity role. I agree with you about Day-Lewis (Hoffman too has won recently, so that would be a surprise) so perhaps they're finally going to go with Leo, despite it not being a particularly showy role.

Calum Reed said...

Actually, Bill Murray seems much more plausible than Leo, although I think that "The Great Gatsby" is one of the BP frontrunners right now.

Alex in Movieland said...

I am not feeling the film, that's all.

I really don't see Leo going anywhere with Gatsby - unless, as I keep saying, they really add in some extra emotion, tears & everything. I can see them pushing Carey for Lead, they'll do the same with Leo, but I just think Best Actor is a much stronger category right now than Actress.

any performance in a PTA movie is gonna be great, so I'm quite confident with Philip Seymour Hoffman. :)
Nicole was an almost random pick for the win, though I seriously trust the nomination.
I would've went with Bullock and Hooper for Director, but having these 2 winning a second Oscar each is MINDBLOWING to me. :)
I think Les Miserables is gonna be strong. with The Master as a real competitor.

Cole said...

I'm also very confident about Nicole's nomination, and maybe a win if she goes supporting. I don't know why I just feel It! And it's true that she should have more nomination under her belt.

dinasztie said...

If Nicole goes supporting, I can even see her winning (doesn't she look awesome in the picture BTW). What the role is about? I don't want to read the Wiki page of the book because you said there are some spoilers there.

But really, Anne is such a likely choice, which is sad because I so want Laura Dern to win (OK, let's just wait till the performances). I can see a tough Anne-Nicole fight in supporting actress and a Viola-Laura Linney battle in Best Actress, which IMO would be awesome (this year was so exciting after all). I'm not sure about Best Actor, though. It can be Hugh Jackman as well.

Don't you trust Dame Maggie's chances? I feel she can benefit from the buzz around her lately. :) But honestly, I don't see her being nominated, let alone win (would love to see that happen, though).

John said...

This is a very beautiful and interesting future prediction i am waiting for the Hobbits

GED Online

Anonymous said...

Don't you think Helena Bonham Carter will be nominated for Les Misérables? She has a good role and she has been recently nominated, the only issue would be her screentime...

Runs Like A Gay said...

Some fascinating predictions - it's certainly not a game I feel qualified to play in totality.

This probably sounds odd but I'm thinking Amanda Seyfried in Lovelace as the baity biopic nomination. (No chance of a win, mind)

I do notice all your directors are returning to the line up - no newbies this year?