Oscar predictions - An update
I usually update this every couple of weeks, but haven't posted them here in 6 months.
So here are my predictions. Please note that:
- Probable winner from the set of nominees - marked in blue.
- The nominees are ranked by chance of getting nominated, not by chance of winning. Example below: Amy Adams is ranked 5th in Best Actress by nomination chance. BUT, if she gets nominated, I think she will win.
- I'm putting a lot of chips on American Hustle - no one has seen it yet. I just have a really good feeling about it.
Nominees:
Picture
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Captain Phillips
6. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
7. Blue Jasmine
8. Rush
If 10:
9. Dallas
10. The Monuments Men
Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron
– Gravity
2. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell – American Hustle
4. Ethan Coen & Joel Coen
– Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Runner-up: Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
Actor
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew
McConaughey – Dallas
3. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
4. Robert Redford – All Is Lost
5. Christian Bale – American Hustle
Runner-up: Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Actress
1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
2. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
3. Sandra Bullock – Gravity
4. Judi Dench – Philomena
5. Amy Adams – American Hustle
Runner-up: Adèle Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color
Supporting Actor
1. Michael
Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
2. Jeremy Renner – American Hustle
3. Jared Leto – Dallas
4. Daniel Brühl – Rush
5. James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Runner-up: Jean Dujardin – The Monuments Men
Supporting Actress
1. Oprah Winfrey –
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
2. Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
3. Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
4. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station
5. Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Runner-up: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Original Screenplay
1. American Hustle
2. Blue Jasmine
3. Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Nebraska
5. Dallas
Runner-up: The Past
Adapted Screenplay
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Captain Phillips
3. Philomena
4. August: Osage
County
5. Before Midnight
Runner-up: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Original Score
1. Gravity
2. Saving Mr. Banks
3. 12 Years a Slave
4. The Monuments Men
5. Oz: The Great and Powerful
Runner-up: The Book Thief
Original Song
1. Frozen
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
3. Monsters University
4. Inside Llewyn Davis [anything eligible?]
5. The Great Gatsby [is Young &
Beautiful eligible?]
Runner-up: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [???]
Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Captain Phillips
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. The Great Gatsby
Runner-up: Rush
Production Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Oz: The Great and Powerful
4. Saving Mr. Banks
5. 12 Years a Slave
Runner-up: Gravity
Costume Design
1. The Great Gatsby
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. American Hustle
4. Oz: The Great and Powerful
5. The Invisible Woman
Runner-up: Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Editing
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. American Hustle
Runner-up: The Monuments Men
Sound
1. Gravity
2. Captain Phillips
3. Rush
4. The Monuments Men
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
Runner-up: Man of Steel
Sound Editing
1. Rush
2. Gravity
3. Man of Steel
4. Pacific Rim
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
Runner-up: Captain Phillips
Visual Effects
1. Gravity
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
3. Man of Steel
4. Iron Man 3
5. Star Trek Into Darkness
Runner-up: Pacific Rim
Makeup & Hair
1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler
3. Rush
Runner-up: Oz: The Great and Powerful
Animated Feature
1. Frozen
2. Monsters University
3. The Wind Rises
4. Despicable Me 2
5. Ernest and Celestine
Runner-up: The Croods
If you've come this far... :) .... this what I had predicted on April 3rd, 2013 (6 months ago!!!). I am still betting on Matthew McConaughey & Michael Fassbender to win - so if that happens, I can say I predicted it 10-11 months in advance ;)
We'll see.
Anything that might seem outrageous to you? :)
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