Tuesday, August 16, 2011

My favorite thing. Updated Oscar predictions

It was April 3rd when I've made my first predictions for this year. I always update them gradually, but I've figured now it's time to also post the changes. To check the previous predictions, click HERE.

Just a couple of things to mention before getting to the categories:

- YES, I still believe Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is gonna be nominated for Picture, Director, Screenplay, because I know it's gonna be a fantastic thriller, and it will have no problem in getting the 5% it needs. It's also Fincher, and I'm sure the directors will reward him with a nomination after last year's fiasco.

- I am not buying Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, or whatever the name is. Yes, Daldry is a fabs director, but the project just seems wrong to me. So don't expect to find it anywhere on my list.

- I still DON'T understand the buzz over The Artist, the silent black-and-white film with nobody famous, that looks like a rip-off of A Star Is Born. I have it on the list with just one nomination.

So let the games begin. What is in bold represents who I think will win the category. On the side, the rest of the nominees, in order of their chance of getting nominated.

Best Picture: War Horse (The Ides of March, J. Edgar, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Young Adult, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Drive, Carnage)

Best Director: Steven Spielberg - War Horse (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March, Drive, J. Edgar)

Best Actor: Leonardo Di Caprio - J. Edgar (George Clooney - The Descendants, Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Ryan Gosling - The Ides of March, Brad Pitt - Moneyball)

Best Actress: Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs (Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady, Charlize Theron - Young Adult, Jodie Foster - Carnage, Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life (Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn, Jim Broadbent - The Iron Lady, Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Ides of March, Armie Hammer - J. Edgar)

Best Supporting Actress: Vanessa Redgrave - Coriolanus (Viola Davis - The Help, Andrea Riseborough - W.E., Naomi Watts - J. Edgar, Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs)

Best Original Screenplay: J. Edgar (Young Adult, Martha Macy May Marlene, The Iron Lady, Midnight in Paris)

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Ides of March (Carnage, War Horse, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

Best Cinematography: War Horse (The Tree of Life, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)

Best Original Score: War Horse (The Adventures of Tintin, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Super 8, The Artist)

Best Original Song: Happy Feet 2 (Cars 2, The Muppets, Captain America, The Help)

Best Editing: War Horse (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, J. Edgar)

Best Art Direction: Hugo (War Horse, Harry Potter, A Dangerous Method, Sherlock Holmes 2)

Best Costume Design: Hugo (War Horse, My Week with Marilyn, Jane Eyre, W.E.)

Best Sound: War Horse (Hugo, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Drive, Super 8)

Best Sound Editing: War Horse (Hugo, The Adventures of Tintin, Transformers 3, Rise of the Planet of the Apes)

Best Visual Effects: Harry Potter (Transformers 3, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Super 8, Pirates of the Caribbean 4)

Best Makeup: Green Lantern (The Iron Lady, J. Edgar)

Best Animated Feature: Rango (Happy Feet 2, Arthur Christmas, Kung Fu Panda 2)

So that's about it. Yes, I think War Horse will get a whole bunch of them.


dinasztie said...

Great Glenn! I think Meryl's Maggie Thatcher will be a flop. I agree, except for Vanessa, I think Viola will get it.

dinasztie said...

Also, I feel that Kate is going to be nominated for Carnage and she may go supporting. That's weird I know but with nowadays' tactics and campaigning.

If Viola goes leading as some say, she has signed the death sentence of her Oscar.

stingo said...

I'm not an expert but Warhorse sounds and look like a veritable festival of boredom.

Don't dismiss Extremely... till you read the book. It's one of my favourites ever. I hope they do it justice.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

I swear, if Glenn wins an Oscar I will be uncontrollably happy. Why are we predicting that YOUNG ADULT will do well, again?

Alex in Movieland said...

I don't think Viola will go for Leading, they're not that crazy. I also don't see her winning, because the buzz has started too early. We'll see.

Yes, Kate in supporting might happen, but that would be difficult for me to guess right now. I'm ok with my Supp line-up, as I've had Andrea Riseborough there ever since the beginning.

I actually don't dislike the War Horse teaser. The film is the best bet I have right now, given what we know. A nomination for sure. A Best Picture win? It's not gonna be Carnage, it's not gonna be Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Not gonna be Drive or The Ides of March. Don't think J. Edgar, nor Tinker.

The mystery card is Young Adult. we'll know as soon as the trailer is out.

I read the plot of Extremely, and I don't like Hanks & Bullock in it. Hanks has lost his acting drive, while Sandra... not always good casting. Sure, it can be terrific, but at THIS point in the race, I'd rather not have it at all.

Because I haven't seen the trailer for Young Adult yet, but it's Reitman, so... there could even be a directing nom. I think it's time for Charlize to get a comeback, and this could be closer to Up in the Air.

dinasztie said...

For me it's extremely wishful thinking but do you think that Jane Fonda could have a chance with her new movie Peace, Love and Misunderstanding? If I look at the story, it seems like Georgia Rule but it premieres at Toronto and Bruce Beresford is the director. I'm kind of hoping. If not an Oscar nom but at least some love (or a Globe nod) for dear Jane.

dinasztie said...

Also forgot: I am 99% sure that if The Door by István Szabó gets released this year, nothing will stop Helen Mirren from a nomination (and even a win if Glenn's not there). The movie is based on a famous novel by Magda Szabó. Helen plays a very stubborn, grumpy housekeeper who's full of secrets. It turns out that she's lost two of her siblings while she was young and she saved the life of little Jewish girl during the Holocaust. She got old furniture from the family she saved which she keeps in her house behind The Door.

It's a fabulous, multi-dimensional role, which she will nail, I'm sure. I saw pictures of her and I was totally blown away.

Alex in Movieland said...

Actually, I know about The Door. :) considered it, but I know nothing about a release date for now, so maybe it's 2012.

and no, stop thinking about Fonda. :) if she gets shitty roles on big screen, she should turn to some fabs guest starring roles on TV. it might help better screenplays come along afterwards.

dinasztie said...

TV and Jane Fonda???!!! You imagine some guest role in SVU? For Jane Fonda? Doing things like Kathy Griffin?

This is blasphemy! :)

Alex in Movieland said...

oh, yeah, but Monster-in-Law was good enough...

Ellen Burstyn does it. Miss Caron did it. Carol Burnett did it, and many more with great success.
it's not just SVU. I bet she wouldn't have a problem showing up on Mad Men or The Good Wife or such.

Anonymous said...

It's good that you added Close this time in predictions.Judging by Carnage trailer,,i think both ladies(Winslet and Foster)are in!

Alex in Movieland said...


hmmm... I'm thinking the opposite: nothing for Carnage, except maybe Adapted Screenplay. I might be ready to take Jodie off the list, and Best Picture also out :)

Yes, Glenn is in... my problem in the previous predictions was that we all know how difficult it is for a Rodrigo Garcia film to get a release date. I wasn't questioning the potential of the film/performance, but the fact that we'd even get the chance to see it this year.
Unfortunately that's what killed Mother and Child.

Anonymous said...

Of course it's only a trailer,but for me promising.If they pull "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf" spirit with lighter tone,this will be major oscar contender.i saw the play and its amazing.Hope film be the same.

Alex in Movieland said...

Be careful, you're going on sacred territory with "...Virginia Woolf?" :)

Winslet didn't seem right to me. I also think it looks a bit fake, as in artificial enviroment & situations. who knows.