Updated January 24th - let's see how I did

And here they are: the final Oscar predictions

Less than 48 hours till the big announcement. For me, the nominations are way more fun than the actual winners. So here are my final predictions: the order represents their chance of getting nominated, NOT their chance of winning.

My predicted winners (if they get nominated) have this *** on the side.

[all 7 nominated; one of the other 2 was runner-up]
Best Picture:

1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. War Horse


if Oscar would've went with 10:
8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9. The Tree of Life
10. Drive


[5/5]
Director:
1. Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
2. Martin Scorsese – Hugo
3. Alexander Payne – The Descendants
4. Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
5. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

6. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Steven Spielberg – War Horse


[4/5]
Actor:
1. George Clooney – The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin – The Artist
3. Brad Pitt – Moneyball
4. Michael Fassbender – Shame
5. Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

6. Michael Shannon – Take Shelter
7. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar


[4/5]
Actress:
1. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis – The Help
3. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
4. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

6. Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Charlize Theron – Young Adult


[4/5]
Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer – Beginners
2. Albert Brooks – Drive
3. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
4. Nick Nolte – Warrior
5. Jonah Hill – Moneyball

7. Patton Oswalt – Young Adult
8. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar


[5/5]
Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer – The Help
2. Berenice Bejo – The Artist
3. Jessica Chastain – The Help
4. Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
5. Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs

6. Shailene Woodley – The Descendants
7. Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus


[3/5]
Original Screenplay:
1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Bridesmaids
4. 50/50
5. Young Adult

6. Beginners
7. Win Win


[4/5 + first runner-up]
Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. The Help
4. Hugo
5. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

6. The Ides of March
7. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo



[3/5 + first runner-up]
Original Score:
1. The Artist
2. War Horse
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4. The Adventures of Tintin
5. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

6. Hugo
7. Jane Eyre


[1/2 but category was a mess]
Original Song:
1. The Muppets (Pictures...)
2. The Muppets (Man or Muppet)
3. Gnomeo and Juliet
4. Captain America
5. The Help

6. Hugo
7. Albert Nobbs


[5/5]
Cinematography:
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Tree of Life
4. War Horse
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

6. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
7. Melancholia


[4/5]
Art Direction:
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. War Horse

6. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
7. The Help


[4/5]
Costume Design:
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. Jane Eyre
4. The Help
5. W.E.

6. My Week with Marilyn
7. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2


[4/5 + first runner-up]
Editing:
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. War Horse
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Moneyball

6. The Descendants
7. The Tree of Life



[3/5 - shame on me, my no. 1, Super 8, was not nominated]
Sound:
1. Super 8
2. Hugo
3. War Horse
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Hanna

6. The Artist
7. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides


[2/5 + first runner-up // but overall poor predictions]
Sound Editing:
1. War Horse
2. Super 8
3. Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol
4. The Adventures of Tintin
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

6. Hugo
7. Rise of the Planet of the Apes


[4/5]
Visual Effects:
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
4. Hugo
5. The Tree of Life

6. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
7. Mission Impossible – Ghost Protocol


[2/3 + second runner-up]
Makeup:
1. The Iron Lady
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
3. Hugo

4. The Artist
5. Albert Nobbs


[3/5]
Animated Feature:
1. Rango
2. Puss in Boots
3. The Adventures of Tintin
4. Cars 2
5. Kung Fu Panda 2

6. Arthur Christmas
7. Rio



[4/5 + first runner-up]
Foreign Language Film:
1. Iran
2. Israel
3. Poland
4. Canada
5. Germany

6. Belgium
7. Morocco



In case you want to see my previous Oscar predictions, just click on the date I've posted them:

APRIL 3RD, 2011

AUGUST 16TH, 2011

DECEMBER 31ST, 2011



You have to agree I haven't predicted anything outrageous. :) I'm going (mostly) safe.

Celebrating 100 profiles



As you can see, this is a special post, dedicated to the achievement of writing here, on this blog, about 100 Best Actress nominated performances. There’s still plenty to go, that’s for sure. But I thought it’s a good time to name my favorite 5 performances that I’ve discussed here, and also remember the 5 that I thought least deserved their nominations.

It is also a good time to make some corrections in the number of stars I’ve given over the years. I feel I was too judgmental with 2 performances, and at the same time too generous with one other.

So here we go.



1. Top 5 performances from the 20 Best Actress years analyzed so far

They are in chronological order. Personally, I know which is the best so far (no, it’s not the one you think), but I’d rather keep that to myself as I truly LOVE all these 5 performances. There were plenty of runner-ups, but I’m confident I’ve chosen the ones I love the most:







Bette Davis, in All About Eve (from the Best Actress 1950 nominees)













Elizabeth Taylor, in Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (from the Best Actress 1966 nominees)












Ingrid Bergman, in Autumn Sonata (from the Best Actress 1978 nominees)












Geraldine Page, in The Trip to Bountiful (from the Best Actress 1985 nominees)












Marion Cotillard, in La vie en rose (from the Best Actress 2007 nominees)







Not much to say about these performances, right?! One has been with me for most of my lifetime, one I’ve discovered while writing for this blog, but I really respect and admire all of them.

Now let’s go to the less fortunate:





2. Least deserving 5 performances from the 20 Best Actress years analyzed so far

The same, they are in chronological order:

Irene Dunne, in Cimarron (from the Best Actress 1931 nominees)
Jennifer Jones, in Love Letters (from the Best Actress 1945 nominees)
Vanessa Regrave, in Morgan: A Suitable Case for Treatment (from the Best Actress 1966 nominees)
Gena Rowlands, in Gloria (from the Best Actress 1980 nominees)
Anne Bancroft, in Agnes of God (from the Best Actress 1985 nominees)


No mystery on who I think is the worst here, given that Anne Bancroft’s Agnes of God performance received the only 1 star I’ve ever given.
Also: Andrew, sorry for including Vanessa, I know you like her performance, but it just didn’t work for me. :(





3. Some corrections

Because it’s a milestone in my Best Actress series, I’m giving myself the chance to correct 3 of the ratings I’ve given for the past 3 years. These changes do not affect the rankings of the performances in their individual Best Actress years. I just think I should’ve given a different number of stars:

Moving up:
- Catherine Deneuve for Indochine (1992 race): from the current moving up to .
- Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008 race): from the current moving up to .


Going down:
- Ellen Burstyn for Resurrection (1980 race): from to .




And that’s about it.
Thanks for stopping by!
And the Best Actress discussions will continue!

Final Conclusions - Best Actress 1931

This was not a great year for the Best Actress category. I won’t regret writing about it so early, of course not: I’ll never will. But it needs to be said that, in my opinion, there’s nothing in this line-up to get excited about. Marie Dressler has her fans, no doubt about it, but to me it’s a flawed performance.

Deciding on a winner was not easy, but in the end I went with the performance I’ve enjoyed the most. I am happy with my #1, because from these 5 performances it’s probably the one that also showed most range. #2 was an easy choice, and so was #3. The next two I care little about, and my contemporaries seem to agree as nobody talks about them anymore.

Given how little impressed I was with this year’s performances, I won’t be giving the Best Acted Scene distinction, a tradition started 2 oscar-years ago.

And here is how I’ve appreciated and ranked the performances. If you want to go back and read more, just click on their names:

1. Norma Shearer, A Free Soul

I am not in a position to say this is not over-the-top, because Norma loves to cry and she’s often enough a spoiled diva in this film. But I like it and this girl was charming as hell: her presence lights the screen, her tears are very convincing and she gives a charismatic, emotional performance, both joyful & flirty, and adequately dramatic.

the highlight: The visit to the jail.

2. Marie Dressler, Min and Bill

I’ll give her credit for being, by far, the best thing about the film and you can tell she tries her best. Sometimes, when she remembers to be subtle, the acting works in her favor: she is convincing and creates an emotional connection with the audience. But often enough, she makes a mistake so often for performances of that era: acting too vividly, as if for audiences in the last row of the stage theatre.

the highlight: Pretending not to love Nancy, when handing her over to more fit parents.

3. Marlene Dietrich, Morocco

There is something really special about her performance here: her shyness, her quiet mysterious way – all these are fascinating and attractive. But how long can you play this card?! The answer would be: the entire film. It’s an interesting performance to study, but it lacks joy, excitement and… range. At times I felt she would’ve needed more acting experience, but I still like it a bit more than the rating suggests.

the highlight: Running away from her engagement party.

4. Ann Harding, Holiday

This is another theatrical performance, but the opposite of Dressler’s. If Marie makes way too many faces to the camera, Ann Harding has almost no emotion to sell: she uses big words, but the emotion is rarely there, on her face, in the performance. Her ghostly presence never bothers me, but once Mary Astor hits the stage, I’m all Ann who?!

the highlight: confronting her father in the party scene.

5. Irene Dunne, Cimarron

Cimarron is a sinking ship, that voters foolishly decided was the best film of its year. Does Irene Dunne survive this gigantic mess? Not really, though I have to admit: what more could she have done?! Her character is a cliché (the supportive wife, otherwise a strong woman), her storyline is a disaster, she’s given no opportunity to show any real charm. But still she’s Irene Dunne and even her worst scenes are easy to get through.

the highlight: As an old woman, giving a big acceptance speech.

Considering this ceremony was one of the first in Oscar’s history (only 4th, to be exact), it’s hard to guess what the few members of the Academy were going crazy for. But let’s try it anyway: I don’t think Marie Dressler’s win was so obvious as some might consider it today. In its previous ceremonies Oscar chose younger ladies to win the trophy, so this really was quite a change. On that note, I suspect the runner-up was Marlene Dietrich, given the incredible year 1930 was for her, with this PLUS The Blue Angel. Norma was 3rd, because of the success of her film, because of her husband, yet only 3rd, given she had already won the Oscar the year before. I guess Irene Dunne was 4th – it would’ve been very a unfair win, but she did perform in the Best Picture winner. And that leaves Ann Harding as 5th.

To see other BEST ACTRESS years discussed so far, go to the column on the right.

What’s next: For this weekend, a special post on me reaching profile number 100, which means about 25% of Oscar’s Best Actress nominated performances; but nothing fancy. And on Sunday or Monday I’ll post my FINAL Oscar predictions. The next Best Actress year to be discussed is, of course, Best Actress 2011.

Golden Globe predictions...

Less than 12 hours till the big ceremony. And here are my predictions; I've also included the ones for TV, even though they are wild guesses, as I hardly watch anything these days.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Prediction: The Help

Alternative: Hugo

Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical

Prediction: The Artist

Alternative: Midnight in Paris

Best Actor - Drama

Prediction: George Clooney - The Descendants

Alternative: Brad Pitt - Moneyball

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Jean Dujardin - The Artist

Alternative: Owen Wilson - Midnight in Paris

Best Actress - Drama

Prediction: Viola Davis - The Help

Alternative: Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

Alternative: Kristen Wiig - Bridesmaids

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Christopher Plummer - Beginners

Alternative: Albert Brooks - Drive

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Octavia Spencer - The Help

Alternative: Berenice Bejo - The Artist

Best Director

Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist

Alternative: Martin Scorsese - Hugo

Best Screenplay

Prediction: The Descendants

Alternative: Moneyball

Best Original Song

Prediction: The Help

Alternative: Gnomeo & Juliet

Best Original Score

Prediction: The Artist

Alternative: War Horse

Best Animated Film

Prediction: Rango

Alternative: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: A Separation

Alternative: In the Land of Blood and Honey

and now for the TV categories...

Best TV Series - Drama

Prediction: Homeland

Alternative: Game of Thrones

Best TV Series - Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Modern Family

Alternative: New Girl

Best TV Movie

Prediction: Downton Abbey

Alternative: Mildred Pierce

Best Actor in a TV Series - Drama

Prediction: Kelsey Grammer - Boss

Alternative: Damian Lewis - Homeland

Best Actor in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Matt LeBlanc - Episodes

Alternative: Johnny Galecki - The Big Bang Theory

Best Actor in a TV Movie

Prediction: William Hurt - Too Big to Fail

Alternative: Dominic West - The Hour

Best Actress in a TV Series - Drama

Prediction: Claire Danes - Homeland

Alternative: Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife

Best Actress in a TV Series - Comedy/Musical

Prediction: Zooey Deschanel - New Girl

Alternative: Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation

Best Actress in a TV Movie

Prediction: Kate Winslet - Mildred Pierce

Alternative: Romola Garai - The Hour

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a TV Series or Movie

Prediction: Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones

Alternative: Guy Pearce - Mildred Pierce

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a TV Series or Movie

Prediction: Jessica Lange - American Horror Story

Alternative: Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

Anything too crazy? :)

Marlene Dietrich, in Morocco

approximately 48 minutes and 14 seconds
53.4% of the film

The film

It's the story of a Foreign Legionnaire who meets and falls in love with a singer.

You can read my short review of the film just by clicking HERE.

It’s a film with plenty of potential because of the exotic location and the charming persona of Marlene Dietrich. It does feel special, but ultimately fails because of the unconvincing love story. I didn’t feel the characters were motivated enough.

Marlene Dietrich as Amy Jolly

With this being Marlene Dietrich’s only Oscar nominated performance, I’m sure modern audiences put a lot of pressure on it and come in with high expectations. That’s not fair, given that she was still a young actress at that point and this happens to be one of her first English-language films. So it’s not a career best performance (from what I’ve seen, I’d give Witness for the Prosecution that honour), but it sure makes for a special nomination.

Marlene plays Amy Jolly, a singer that arrives in Morocco and starts working in a night club. It’s here that she meets a handsome legionnaire and falls in love with him. While she is courted by a rich older man, she simply can’t get over her feelings for the soldier. It’s not a very tragic role, but it does have its key dramatic moments; also, it gives Marlene the chance to sing, something that people from the era seemed to think she was good at.

Marlene creates the character as a quiet, solitary, almost mysterious woman; you won’t see her laugh and she almost never smiles. While this makes the character feel dull at times, it lets us believe that Amy has led a rich emotional life and it gives the impression she is an experienced woman who has seen plenty of things during her lifetime.

The main thing that defines the character throughout the film is her passion for the legionnaire, played by a gorgeous young Gary Cooper. While we can easily believe her crush on him, a complete love story feels unjustified and forced in by the poor writing. Unfortunately, this unconvincing romance is the foundation both for the film and Marlene’s performance, and it ends up affecting the performance.

Marlene tries her best: her desperation is played with a lot of talent and you can notice how she changes everytime he’s around, there’s no need for words. But while I appreciate Marlene’s effort, it’s all for an unconvincing cause: such an experienced, controlled woman would not lose her mind for a man she’s seen just once or twice.

But as I said: the vulnerability is beautifully played, with Marlene’s sad, expressive eyes as the winning element of the performance. To me, the overall performance lacks tears or it lacks joy, it’s too quiet to be considered a great one. The occasional levels of intensity do not help it rise to a fully satisfying level; during the whole film I still felt like something was missing.

I won’t spend time writing about the kissing scene, as it doesn’t define at all the performance; the musical numbers didn’t impress me either, and even those felt strange and restrained. It’s an unusual performance for Oscar to go for, a mysterious one that I will probably remember more fondly than my rating suggests: judging it as objectively as I can it’s a strong .

Talking about a diva was the way to go here: this is performance number 100 that I get to write about… After I write the Conclusions for 1931, there’ll be some short celebration remembering a couple of the first 100; nothing too fancy, but the number is respectable enough to require mentioning.