Sunday, January 23, 2011

Final Oscar predictions...



More or less 48 hours till the Oscar nominations arrive... It seems like a good time to post final predictions, even though I still can't fully decide on the 5th Best Actress slot or the 3rd nominee for Animated.

And a bit OT: how about King's Speech winning the PGA? It's my least favorite of the 11 films in contention, but at least it makes the race more interesting. :) Though: had The Fighter won the PGA, it would've meant more.

The nominees are listed by their chances of getting nominated (not winning):



Best Picture:
1. The Social Network
2.
The King’s Speech
3.
The Fighter
4.
True Grit
5.
Black Swan
6.
Inception
7.
The Kids Are All Right
8.
Toy Story 3
9.
Winter’s Bone
10.
The Town

11. 127 Hours
12.
Shutter Island



Director:
1. David Fincher – The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper –
The King’s Speech
3. Darren Aronofsky –
Black Swan
4. Christopher Nolan –
Inception
5. David O. Russell –
The Fighter

6. Ethan Coen & Joel Coen – True Grit
7. Danny Boyle –
127 Hours



Actor:
1. Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
2. James Franco –
127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg –
The Social Network
4. Jeff Bridges –
True Grit
5. Robert Duvall –
Get Low

6. Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
7. Javier Bardem –
Biutiful



Actress:
1. Natalie Portman – Black Swan
2. Annette Bening –
The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence –
Winter’s Bone
4. Nicole Kidman –
Rabbit Hole
5. Julianne Moore –
The Kids Are All Right

6. Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
7. Hailee Steinfeld –
True Grit





Supporting Actor:
1. Christian Bale – The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush –
The King’s Speech
3. Jeremy Renner –
The Town
4. Andrew Garfield –
The Social Network
5. Mark Ruffalo –
The Kids Are All Right

6. Michael Douglas – Wall Street 2
7. John Hawkes –
Winter’s Bone




Supporting Actress:
1. Melissa Leo – The Fighter
2. Amy Adams – The Fighter
3. Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
4. Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
5. Mila Kunis – Black Swan

6. Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
7. Lesley Manville –
Another Year



Original Screenplay:
1.
The King’s Speech
2.
The Kids Are All Right
3.
Inception
4.
Black Swan
5.
Another Year


Adapted Screenplay:
1.
The Social Network
2.
Toy Story 3
3.
True Grit
4. Winter’s Bone
5.
127 Hours


Original Score:
1.
Inception
2.
The King’s Speech
3.
The Social Network
4.
Alice in Wonderland
5.
How to Train Your Dragon


Original Song:
1.
Tangled
2.
Burlesque
3.
Toy Story 3
4.
Waiting for Superman
5.
Burlesque


Cinematography:
1.
True Grit
2.
Inception
3.
Black Swan
4.
The Social Network
5.
127 Hours


Art Direction:
1.
The King’s Speech
2.
True Grit
3.
Alice in Wonderland
4.
Shutter Island
5.
Inception


Costume Design:
1.
Alice in Wonderland
2.
True Grit
3.
The King’s Speech
4.
The Tempest
5.
TRON: Legacy


Editing:
1.
The Social Network
2.
Inception
3.
Black Swan
4.
The Fighter
5.
True Grit


Sound:
1.
Inception
2.
True Grit
3.
TRON: Legacy
4.
The Social Network
5.
Black Swan


Sound Editing:
1.
Inception
2.
TRON: Legacy
3.
How to Train Your Dragon
4.
True Grit
5.
Toy Story 3


Visual Effects:
1.
Inception
2.
TRON: Legacy
3.
Alice in Wonderland
4.
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
5.
Iron Man 2


Makeup:
1.
Alice in Wonderland
2.
The Wolfman
3.
The Way Back


Animated Feature:
1.
Toy Story 3
2.
How to Train Your Dragon
3.
Tangled


Foreign Language Film:
1. Incendies – Canada
2. Live, above All – South Africa
3. Biutiful – Mexico
4. In a Better World – Denmark
5. Even the Rain – Spain

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think the nominees for best actress will be:Portman,Bening,Lawrence,Steinfeld and Williams.(Have feeling Kidman will be snubbed).For supp.actress:Adams,Leo,Carter,Weaver and Manville(or Kunis or even Hershey).I would replace Douglas with Damon(true grit) in supp.actor 6th position,otherwise we pretty much agree.

Brandon (Twister) said...

Alex, have you seen The Fighter yet?

If so, don't you agree that's its outrageous that Wahlberg seems to be getting almost no attention for his great performance? Even you don't seem to think he'll make the cut which is sad because it MIGHT be true....:(

joe burns said...

I basically agree, though I don't think that Moore will be nominated..

My predictions will be up soon..

Alex in Movieland said...

@Brandon,

yes, I have seen The Fighter.
while I think Mark was good for the part, he was overshadowed by his co-stars. For me, it was a bit too low-key :) but definitely I good one.

that being said, if there's quality that needs to be recognized, that's gotta be Ryan Gosling. and I suspect also Bardem, which I haven't seen yet.


@joe,
I'm not sure about Moore either, but:
- I'm not sure I'll buy the category switch for Hailee.
- I don't think they'll nominate Michelle without Ryan. it's either both or none, I think.
- I kinda hope it won't be Hilary because she's not bad in it, but she makes some silly acting mistakes...

Julianne, with a GG nom, a BAFTA nom, with an ensemble nom from the SAG, might actually make it. Truth is:

ANYONE could take the 5th spot: Julianne, Michelle, Hilary, Noomi, Tilda, Lesley, even Halle and I wouldn't be surprised.
maybe even Anne playing her popularity card as a host.
who knows.

whatever happens on tuesday, we're guaranteed a surprise in this category.

Runs Like A Gay said...

Definitely agree there will be some shocks in the actress categories.

I prefer the shocks to the guaranteed nods so it's all good.

Andrew: Encore Entertainment said...

God, Julianne Moore getting nominated would MAKE MY DAY. That's all.