Wednesday, August 15, 2012

And the Oscar goes to...

don't cry, Anne, that Oscar will be yours no matter what...




Here are my updated Oscar predictions.

Some thoughts:

  • I have finally removed Keira Knightley from my predictions list. The more I look at the Anna Karenina trailer, the more I realize the film won't go anywhere Oscar-wise, except for technical stuff. I still believe Keira is so wrong for the part, I still think it will be all superficial, with no substance.
  • Plenty of category confusion, still: I have switched PSHoffman & Joaquin for The Master: I imagine now they'll go with Joaquin in Lead & Philip in Supporting. They would be crazy to have them both compete in Lead.
  • Even with The Master buzz, I still have a lot of faith in Les Miz to go for the Best Picture win.
  • Best Actress category looks like 2003, except then we knew whoever was getting nominated Charlize would win. Now... complete confusion. I am only sure of 2 of the nominees (Linney & Marion). I am keeping Helen Hunt in Leading, though some feel differently.
  • I have the same Best Director predictions as I had on May 1st. I am consistent with this.
  • We need a trailer for Lincoln asap.
  • I have Beasts of the Southern Wild with 1 nomination, but you can't convince me yet that a 7-8 year old is gonna break through in Leading Actress. No, no, no.


And here they are (in alphabetical order, with blue marking the winner):

BEST PICTURE (8)
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
(runner-up: Hyde Park on Hudson)


BEST DIRECTOR
Tom Hooper – Les Misérables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
(runner-up: Michael Hanneke - Amour)


BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Misérables
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
(runner-up: Clint Eastwood - The Trouble with the Curve)


BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Laura Linney – Hyde Park on Hudson
Elizabeth Olsen – Therese Raquin
Vanessa Redgrave – Song for Marion
(runner-up: Maggie Smith - Quartet)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Russell Crowe – Les Misérables
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
William H. Macy – The Sessions
Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
(runner-up: Dwight Henry - Beasts of the Southern Wild)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables
Jessica Lange – Therese Raquin
Olivia Williams – Hyde Park on Hudson
(runner-up: Helen Hunt - The Sessions, if she choses to go supporting)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour
Django Unchained
Hyde Park on Hudson
The Master
Zero Dark Thirty
(runner-up: The Sessions)


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
(runner-up: The Hobbit)


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
(runner-up: Anna Karenina)


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Anna Karenina
Brave
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Lincoln
(runner-up: Moonrise Kingdom)


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Brave
The Hobbit
Sparkle
(runner-up: who the hell knows?! random picks)


BEST ART DIRECTION
Anna Karenina
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Prometheus
(runner-up: Lincoln)


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Snow White and the Huntsman
(runner-up: Django Unchained)


BEST EDITING
The Hobbit
The Master
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
(runner-up: Life of Pi)


BEST SOUND MIXING
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Zero Dark Thirty
(runner-up: Life of Pi)


BEST SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
The Hunger Games
Life of Pi
Skyfall
(runner-up: Zero Dark Thirty)


BEST VISUAL  EFFECTS
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus
(runner-up: Skyfall)


BEST MAKEUP
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Lincoln
(runner-up: The Hunger Games)


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
Rise of the Guardians
The Secret World of Arrietty
Tales of the Night
(runner-up: Paranorman)




I'm quite right with these, don't you agree?


5 comments:

dinasztie said...

I hope Helen goes leading. She deserves a great comeback.

I don't trust Hyde Park on Hudson, it's gonna be My Week With Marilyn once again. Murray is the likeliest to receive the nod and Laura. I'm not buying Olivia Williams. We'll see about the Toronto reception.

Sebbers said...

Beasts of the Southern Wild is good enough to get nominations, MORE than good enough, however I agree that the likelihood of a little girl getting a lead acting nomination is slim (and there is no way they could put her as supporting), but I think it is getting enough buzz and word of mouth to carry out into a lot of nominations. If you want, read my review on the lead on my blog, I really enjoyed her performance and think it would be such a progressive decision for the Academy to nominate a performance like hers, but alas, I don't think it will.

Alex in Movieland said...

@Daniel,

I'm keeping Olivia Williams only because you always need a new-comer in the acting categories (partly why i also have Olsen for Best Actress). Remember this year, when it seemed like they were all gonna be actresses previously nominated?... And then came Rooney to replace Tilda... there's almost always (I think 1994's the only exception in recent years) a new-comer.

anyway, Supporting Actress clearly more crowded this year than BA.


@Sebbers,
I did read. But for a child that maybe can't even read to get an Oscar nom... ugh. no-no-no. I want my nominees to at least be able to write their own names.

joe burns said...

I'm not sure if Anne is such a big lock, the role is very small, she'll have to have the impact of someone like Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener for example. I just don't think any winner can be decided just yet.

As for Best Actress, I'm hoping Julianne Moore will get in and win for The English Teacher, although Laura might be considered more overdue.

Nues20 said...

Good predictions, mine are somewhat similar.
The only weird thing about predicting now is that there always seems to be so many options.
Some seem quite definite but some films haven't even released their trailers yet:)

http://awardreview.blogspot.co.uk/p/oscar-predix-aug-2012.html